Tyler O'Neill Traded to the Red Sox
Should we expect a bounce back from O'Neill in Boston?
Tyler O'Neill traded to the Red Sox
The Red Sox had a busy week as they rearranged their outfield. Early in the week, they traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees and, later in the week, acquired Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals. O’Neill has been on the trade block for a while, and the Cardinals finally made a move that will hopefully benefit O’Neill going forward.
O’Neill burst onto the scene in 2021 by hitting 34 home runs, 89 runs scored, 80 RBI, and 15 stolen bases while hitting .286. Since then, it has been all downhill for O’Neill. He hit 23 home runs and stole 19 bases over the last two seasons over 168 games. 2021 was a career year in every aspect of his fantasy stats, but looking below the surface over the previous three seasons, some apparent differences can be adjusted.
In 2021, O’Neill struck out 31.3% of the time with a 17.9% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate. Over the last two seasons, his strikeout rate has dropped to 26.9% and 25.2%, while his quality of contact dropped to a barrel rate of around 12% and a hard-hit rate of 43.3%. These changes can be attributed to his aggressiveness or lack thereof at the plate.
O’Neill was much more free-swinging in 2021 with a 32.1% O-Swing, which dropped to 29.6% and 28.5% over the last two seasons. His overall Swing% dropped as well, with a 49.8% rate in 2021, followed by 46.3% and 44.4%. The overall contact percentages all rose, but that was based on making contact with pitches not in O’Neill’s power zones.
To hit for power, you have to elevate the ball, and O’Neill has not been doing that enough of late. In 2021, O’Neill had a ground ball rate of 36.2%, which rose to 42% in 2022 and 42.7% in 2023. This correlated by making more contact on pitches in the outer zone. Making more contact on the outer part of the zone will also affect pulled power, which affects his home run totals.
This is just my caveman brain looking at O’Neill’s baseball-savant hitting and zone charts over the last three seasons, but it makes a ton of sense with his lack of power and overall quality of contact dropping. If O’Neill can become more aggressive on the inner half of the plate, his pull power should come back. He may strike out more, but that’s a price worth paying for that 30+ home run upside.
He should flourish with the Green Monster in Boston if the power comes back. Over the last 10 NFBC Draft Champions, O’Neill has an ADP of 291.1 which is a nice value and a draft price that will surely rise as the draft season continues. I will buy into an improved season from O’Neill, and you should, too.