MLB DFS Game Plan: March 29
Check out the way I am attacking tonight's 8-game MLB DFS slate.
Welcome to the first edition of the MLB DFS Game Plan. I will publish my thoughts on the substack when I have time throughout the weekdays, especially on days I won’t be able to record an episode of Quick Hits. No Quick Hits today, so here are my thoughts.
We have an 8-game slate on tap today, starting at 6:50 pmEST. There are three games with a total of nine runs, and those were already the games I was focusing on for bats. Those games are NYY/HOU, COL/ARI, and STL/LAD. Yesterday, we saw nine runs in Houston, the DBacks scored 16 of their own, and the Dodgers laid the wood to the Cardinals.
Pitchers to Start
Merrill Kelly (ARI - $9400)- If you will pay up at pitcher, Kelly would be my top target. Kelly is a boring but beautiful pitcher in fantasy, and he has a great matchup versus the Rockies tonight. Kelly had an up-and-down spring as he allowed eight earned runs over 12 innings, but he did strike out 18, which has caught my attention. Gallen didn’t have his A-game on Thursday and was still quite serviceable, making Kelly equally enticing tonight.
Kyle Harrison (SF - $7800)- Harrison has some command issues, but they did improve as last season went on. We saw some good outings and some rough ones in the walk department this spring, but in the end, Harrison struck out 17 over 12.2 innings while walking eight. He takes on the Padres today, who can spank left-handed pitching but also have plenty of strikeout appeal. Harrison makes for a cheaper GPP play due to his strikeout upside.
A.J. Puk (MIA - $7000)- Once again, we get a great value on the slate. Yesterday was a sub $6K Garrett Crochet, and today it’s Puk. Puk has looked great this spring, allowing two earned runs over 13.2 innings while striking out 23. Puk had the strikeouts going in full force, and that could continue tonight as he takes on a Pirates team that struck out eight times over five innings versus Luzardo on Thursday. Eat all of the Puk chalk tonight.
Other GPP Targets- Bobby Miller, Nick Pivetta, Martin Perez
Stacks
DBacks- After putting up 16 on Opening Day, the DBacks should be in line for another big night as they take on Cal Quantrill and the Rockies pen. The Rockies will be a team to target daily with their atrocious pitching. Focus- Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte. Values- Geraldo Perdomo and Blaze Alexander
Dodgers- The Dodgers had their fun on Thursday, and that should continue versus the lefty Zack Thompson tonight. Last year, RHH slugged .465 with a .343 wOBA versus Thompson, and the Dodgers have plenty of RHH power to utilize. Focus- Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani. Values- Chris Taylor
Guardians- The Guardians scored eight runs on Thursday versus the dreadful A’s, and that should continue again tonight. They take on Ross Stripling and then more bullpen, so load up the Guardians regardless of the ballpark. It brought some lower ownership on players on the 3-game slate last night. Focus- Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez (low owned Thursday), Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Steven Kwan. Values- Will Brenan, Estevan Florial, Bryan Rocchio
Contrarian Game Stack- The Yankees and Astros combined for five runs last night, and they may be worth a run back again on Friday. The Yankees will take on Christian Javier, who struggled last season and has not been great this season. Conversely, you have Rodon, who finished spring well but still struggled. We know the Astros have a ton of power compared to LHP. They got to Nestor Cortes early on Thursday, but to Cortes’s credit, he settled down.
Final Thoughts
Single Entry- Keep it simple with Kelly and Puk on the mound. Then, target the DBacks, Dodgers, and Guardians. Maybe a 3-3-2 type of day. The Guardians bring much value to the bottom of their batting order. If you need a small tweek, target some of the Astros/Yankees value.
Multi-Entry: Mix and match the main stacks, but take some one-offs or two-man stacks from the Jays, Mariners, and Marlins (in that order). For the one-offs or two-man stacks, I would prefer not to punt with those and rather take values in your stacks. On the pitching side, don’t be scared to mix in some of the honorable pitching options.
It should be a fun 8-game slate with plenty of Friday night fireworks. If you have any questions, please message me on my Substack.