2024 Fantasy Baseball Profiles - Zack Gelof
After a great rookie season, what to expect from Zack Gelof in 2024.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Profile - Zack Gelof
2023 was the coming out party for Oakland A’s second baseman Zack Gelof. Gelof was called up mid-season by the A’s and played 69 games for the big club. Over those 69 games, Gelof racked up 300 plate appearances, hitting 14 home runs and stealing 14 bases—quite the power and speed combo. The power and speed were not a significant surprise as Gelof also hit 12 home runs and stole 20 bases in 69 AAA games before his promotion.
Some do not believe in the power of Gelof, but some excellent stats point to his success. Gelof barreled the ball 11.1% of the time with a 40.7% hard-hit rate, which is nice, but what Gelof did with the nice contact quality tells the story to me. With the A’s, Gelof pulled the ball 44.4% of the time while hitting the ball straight away 34.4%. We all know that pull power is the path to most power success, but 78.8% of balls in play going center to pull will allow for a ton of power.
When looking at Gelof’s 14 home runs, eight were pulled to left-left center, with the other six being definite home runs to center-right center. According to baseball savant, Gelof had a 13.1 xHR with only two home runs being doubters and a very nice 35.7% no-doubter percentage.
Yes, these are all great, but I will also acknowledge the concerns. Gelof does hit the ball on the ground a ton. Gelof hit the ball on the ground 41.3% of the time with a 32.2% fly ball rate. That may look bad, but the league average ground ball rate was 44.2%, while the average fly ball rate was 33.7%. All in all, it's not bad, and what helps Gelof is a 26.5% line drive rate, which is better than the 22.1% league average. Line drive rates fluctuate often, but that can lead to more fly and ground balls, which is something to keep in mind.
The big elephant in the room is the outstanding 23% HR/FB, well above the 14.5% league average. An HR/FB rate like Gelof’s is usually difficult to sustain, but he has shown a rise in HR/FB throughout the minor leagues and has a 22.1% HR/FB throughout his career. This could be the result of a precise adjustment at the plate.
For me, the power is legit. The batting average could be a significant question mark, though. Last year Gelof hit .267 with a .253 xBA. I’d be willing to take a .253 average with the power and speed that Gelof supplies. The batting average skills come into question when seeing his .331 BABIP. That is lofty, but like his HR/FB gains, Gelof has always had a high BABIP throughout the minors. There could be a dip in batting average this season, but not enough to scare me off him.
Gelof was a second-round pick, 60th overall, and he is playing like a top draft pick. He will be entering his age 24 season, which means there could be even more growth in store for Gelof. Playing for the A’s may stink regarding runs and RBI, but playing time should not be an issue as he racks up home runs and stolen bases.
Steamer has Gelof projected for .238/21/77/67/20, which is a strong line, but Gelof can put up 25+/25+, which will help in all ROTO categories. Over the last month, he has been drafted as the 12th 2B off the board in NFBC DCs with an ADP of 135.5. I would take him before Ketel Marte, Andres Gimenez, Bryson Stott, and Ha-Seong Kim. Gelof rates out with Gelyber Torres for me, and he should be drafted as such.
I love Gelof. Huge pickup for me, helped win a couple leagues.
Agree the power is legit. The Athletic I believe had an article breaking down his swing; said it was a “softball swing,” usually not conducive to the majors but he makes it work, helps him pull the ball.
Speed is real and he’s a smart kid.
Doing my first NFBC drafts (50s/gladiators) and have him 2x. One draft I panicked needing SB and took Kim in the 5th. Would’ve been better waiting 4-5 rounds for Gelof.
I probably should have asked here instead of on X, but would you rather have Trevor Story or Gelof for next season? They both will be locks in their lineups I believe and given the team context I would think Story would have better numbers if he stays healthy. That being said, Story has spent a lot more time on the IL with the Red Sox and when he’s been on the field it’s been rough to watch minus that huge hot streak in 2022 and some steals this past season. It’s early and things will likely change, but at this point I seem to find myself wanting Story slightly more due to the track record, even though lately it’s been ugly to watch. What do you think?