2024 Fantasy Baseball Profile - Tanner Bibee

Bibee had an excellent 2023 season, what should we expect in 2024?

Player Profile - Tanner Bibee

Entering 2023, there were high expectations for the Guardians’ three prospect pitchers: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen. Bibee got the first crack at the big leagues and put together a great rookie season.

Bibee threw 142 innings in his first season, collecting a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The ERA indicators say Bibee had a 4.22 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA, which suggests Bibee may have overachieved a bit. Regardless, it was a great first season for Bibee and leaves me wanting some shares in 2024. 

I am interested in Bibee heading into this season when I dig deeper into his numbers. Bibee had a 24.1% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate on the season, but he saw improvements in the 2H of the season. 

Bibee threw 70 innings in the 1H of the season and 72 innings in the 2H. He saw improvements in his runs allowed and his command, showcased in the all-important K-BB%. Even Bibee’s WHIP improved drastically from 1.29 to 1.07. He became a fantasy ace as the season went along. 

The changes in production for Bibee were quite evident when looking at his rolling graph throughout the season when comparing his ERA and SwStr%. As the season went along, Bibee forced more SwStr, and his ERA followed suit.

One may think there was a significant change in Bibee’s pitch mix, but that was not the case, as his four-pitch mix didn’t change much. 

Bibee remained primarily a fastball pitcher who mixed in an elite slider, a high-quality changeup, and a decent curveball. When looking at PLV (courtesy of Pitcher List), Bibee could find another level if he utilized his slider and changed up more, as they are very valuable pitches.

Bibee’s slider is above average, and his changeup is excellent. They both have great ERA estimators, showcased by their PLA numbers. The fastball and changeup are average to slightly below average, allowing more runs than his ERA suggests. Adding more sliders and changeups could open up even more success for Bibee.

When looking deeper at each pitch, one can see just how effectively Bibee’s slider and changeup limit damage. It’s pretty impressive, and something the Guardians surely can also notice.

Regarding NFBC DC ADP since 12/15 (last ten drafts), Bibee has an ADP of 110.3. He is the 33rd starting pitcher off the board. He makes a strong SP2 and a great SP3 heading into 2024. I will target a lot of Bibee throughout my 2024 draft season. 

I’ll admit that breaking down pitchers in an article is not my strong suit, so hopefully this helped.